Golden Globe Predictions.

If the Hollywood Foreign Press Association serves a purpose it's to deliver the wackiest awards show on the planet. This year, more than any other, they might just go ahead and also have one of their most surprising ceremonies, with several film categories literally up in the air.

People don't give the HFPA the credit they deserve and forget that unlike the Academy they aren't afraid to go for the edgiest choices from time to time and as much starfucking as they do, they actually deliver the acting awards to the best performances.
This year they will give their prestigious Cecil B. de Mille Award to the incomparable Martin Scorsese (who just last year handed it out to Steven Spielberg), let's keep in mind that the HFPA gave Marty their Best Director award twice and before the Academy.
So maybe they're not all about champagne, crassness and cursing. Maybe they're on to something.

Best Motion Picture (Drama)

Will win: "Avatar"
Should win: "The Hurt Locker"

"Up in the Air" might be the movie going in with the most nominations, but "Avatar" is all the rage right now. The Globes were one of the first to reward "Titanic" twelve years ago when "L.A. Confidential" was sweeping everything and whenever they have the opportunity to reward something epic, over something small they will usually choose that road.
It would be incredible to see them give their top award to "The Hurt Locker", but after last year's love for the slumdog, they might want to get back to being all Hollywood.

Best Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical)

Will win: "Nine"

Should win: "(500) Days of Summer"

Truth be told, their lineup in this category isn't so good. It's filled with average to good movies without a single truly outstanding thing in the mix. Sure "Julie & Julia" was fun, but is it really Best Picture material?
"Nine" stands as the second most nominated film this year and the HFPA loves musicals and stars, but the real shame here is that they went AMPAS' way and threw all the animated films to their own category. If they hadn't sent them to the ghetto, "Up" would've had this one in the bag and with reason, it's among the best films of the decade.

Best Director Motion Picture

Will win: Kathryn Bigelow "The Hurt Locker"
Should win: Kathryn Bigelow "The Hurt Locker"

The Globes already rewarded a woman in this category, so they have that whole "let's make history" thing out of their minds. So here they will perhaps establish one of those splits awards have become so fond of. Bigelow's film was the most taut thriller of the year and the best movie about the Iraq invasion released so far. James Cameron will have to sit down and applaud as his ex-wife begins her steady march towards Oscar.
Oh and that nomination for Clint Eastwood is a joke.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama)

Will win: Jeff Bridges "Crazy Heart"
Should win: N/A

As much as the Globes love George Clooney, they will not resist rewarding a man who epitomized cool decades before Clooney came to notoriety. The fact that they nominated Tobey Maguire for "Brothers" should be enough for them to make up by giving the award to someone who actually has been mastering the craft for decades.
If not for all of this, maybe they will realize that Clooney having two acting Globes already is way too much already...

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama)

Will win: Carey Mulligan "An Education"
Should win: Carey Mulligan "An Education"

Maybe I'm just trying to convince myself that Sandra Bullock's bizarre win in the Critics Choice Awards was a freaky accident that had Mulligan and Gabourey Sidibe split each other's votes or maybe the HFPA will choose the best performance in the category.
If Mulligan has an advantage is that she doesn't have to compete with Meryl Streep here and that the Globes love the British ingenue more than the rest (last year's win for Sally Hawkins was extraordinary!) and again that she's the best in the category (I love Emily Blunt but I'll never understand what she's doing here over Abbie Cornish, yes I will bring up Cornish in everything Best Actress related this season).
Oh boy, but what if Mulligan and Sidibe split their votes all over and Bullock emerges winner?

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)
Will win: Joseph Gordon-Levitt "(500) Days of Summer"
Should win: Joseph Gordon-Levitt "(500) Days of Summer"

It's been settled that everyone pretty much hates "Nine", so a win for Daniel Day Lewis here would be strange (especially because critics pretty much think he's the weakest link in the movie). A hunch tells me they might want to reward Matt Damon in "The Informant!" just so that he won't go home empty handed (he won't win Supporting...) but if something the Globes love more than the rest are the pretty boys delivering superb performances.
If Jonathan Rhys Meyers and James Franco are Golden Globe winners, how can they not love Joseph Gordon-Levitt's delightful turn in "(500) Days of Summer"?
I expect him to be the kind of slight shocker Colin Farrell was last year, even if his win totally makes sense.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)
Will win: Meryl Streep "Julie & Julia"
Should win: Meryl Streep "Julie & Julia"

Come on they probably engraved her name in the award the day after the movie came out.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

Will win: Christoph Waltz "Inglourious Basterds"
Should win: Christoph Waltz "Inglourious Basterds"

It's a shame that poor Christopher Plummer is getting nominated for awards for the first time in his entire career because he has almost no chance to win any facing the juggernaut that is Waltz. The HFPA won't merely be following in the footsteps of Cannes and the critics' awards, they will also be reminding people that they are above all an international committee seeking to reward the best from wherever in the world they are.
And yes, Waltz was brilliant.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Will win: Mo'Nique "Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire"
Should win: Mo'Nique "Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire"

I will never understand what everyone sees in those "Up in the Air" female performances and as much as I would love for Penélope Cruz to finally win a Globe if she lost for what have been her two greatest performances she won't be winning for "Nine" (HFPA unlike AMPAS doesn't really go for the whole "should've won last year so let's reward them now" policy).
Mo'nique delivered a stunner of a performance and she has a pretty clear path up til Oscar. The only question that remains is will she show up or not.

Best Animated Feature Film
Will win: "Up"
Should win: "Up"

It's ironic that the animated feature film lineup makes for a much more satisfying array of nominees than that whole Best Picture Comedy or Musical category.

Best Foreign Language Film
Will win: "The White Ribbon"
Should win: A case could be made for all the nominees.

HFPA has shown they love gritty in this category and a win for "A Prophet" wouldn't be a complete shocker. They have proved they love their legendary auteurs which is why Michael Haneke's stunning "The White Ribbon" seems like it could get it.
They adore Almodóvar, but maybe he's won too many times and "Broken Embraces" didn't have the appeal his previous films did awards wise.
And Chile's "The Maid" was such a surprising picture that they could want to reward it for the freshness factor.
I say Haneke's film wins here by a very slight margin.

Best Screenplay Motion Picture
Will win: Quentin Tarantino "Inglourious Basterds"
Should win: Quentin Tarantino "Inglourious Basterds"

Best Original Score Motion Picture
Will win: Michael Giacchino "Up"
Should win: Michael Giacchino "Up"

Best Original Song Motion Picture
Will win: "The Weary Kind (Theme From Crazy Heart)" – "Crazy Heart"
Music & Lyrics By: Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett
Should win: N/A

Over at the TV side I'm predicting "Mad Men" and "Glee" to get the series awards (they love fresh but "30 Rock" should definitely be winning again) and Alec Baldwin, Toni Collette, Jon Hamm and Glenn close to get the lead acting awards.
"Grey Gardens" will obviously win the Made for TV Movie/Miniseries awards but I'll go on a limb here and predict Jessica Lange loses Best Actress to Drew Barrymore who will no doubt deliver the night's cutest speech.
I also say Jane Lynch wins Supporting Actress for "Glee" and Neil Patrick Harris gets the one Emmy stole from him.

The Golden Globes air Sunday Jan. 17 on NBC.