I won't even bother with predictions for tonight's Screen Actor Guild Awards, considering this group has rewarded Paul Giamatti, Johnny Depp and Ruby Dee in recent years for performances that were nominated for Oscar but lost, it's obvious that they don't seem to care who'll end up winning a few weeks later (just take a look at their ensemble lineup last year, it was bizarre, but worthy so it made sense).
This year they have a thing for "Slumdog Millionaire" and who doesn't lately? So I expect it to get Best Cast, even if its inclusion in the category is preposterous, but how the hell will they resist those cute little kids' faces via satellite from Mumbai when they win?
They'll think they're doing UNICEF work when in reality they're degrading their craft considering this year we had some remarkable ensemble work from the people in "Rachel Getting Married", "Elegy", "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" heck even "Australia" and "Mamma Mia!" would make more sense than "Slumdog".
But ok, breathe, maybe this is all a crazy rant and the impressive ensemble of "Doubt" will get the award, which they should considering the cast is perfection.
SAG has a thing for sentimental faves (which is why we can expect a looong ovation for Heath Ledger) and unless they're feeling Kate backlash (which I think is limited to Batman fanboys and award bloggers) she will win an award tonight.
But let's analyze things properly, would it matter if she won Supporting for "The Reader" and Meryl or Anne got Lead?
Truth is that SAG history has shown us that these situations are solved by giving the award to the second favorite (see Supporting Actor in 2000 and Supporting Actress in 2001) so I don't see any monumental shocks occurring.
If I could vote it'd go: Kate, Mickey, Heath, Penélope, cast of "Doubt".
But since they don't care what I say, I'll open some wine and have fun with Tina Fey's speech.