If there's something we can thank the Hollywood Foreign Press for, besides the delicious way they get stars drunk, is that they often have the balls to do stuff Grandpa Oscar would only dream of.
Their choices for Best Picture can go from the silly to the groundbreaking and while they're starfuckers of the highest caliber they usually reward the best in their categories.
I don't think Meryl Streep will win anything tonight even if she's up for two, but if I had a request it would be for all the winners to ask her graciously to give their speeches for them or at least have her go through their notes before going up the podium.
Sigh, now I'm wishing she wins them all..
Best Motion Picture-Drama
Will win: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Should win: "Revolutionary Road"
"Slumdog Millionaire" might take it because it's been sweeping, but Globe voters might feel this is too happy to be in this category for starters. They've loved their epics in the past which is why it's easy to predict Benjamin for the win. But out of the nominees, Sam Mendes' film about marital discomfort is probably the best, a film that stays with you even if the first time it wasn't quite what you expected and even when you know it wasn't a masterpiece.
Can it be one of those movies that grows better with time? The Globes could want to say they predicted that before everyone else.
Will win: Mickey Rourke "The Wrestler"
Should win: Rourke or Sean Penn for "Milk"
The battle of the bad boys as Penn and Rourke take on a couple of sensitive dudes.
If I could hope for a tie, it would be for these two who are spectacular in a beautifully quiet way.
But if I have to put my money on one I guess Rourke is the comeback story and he's probably give a drunker speech.
Who cares if he was last good in the 80s? These people after all awarded Pia Zadora back then.
Will win: Kate Winslet "Revolutionary Road"
Should win: Kate Winslet "Revolutionary Road"
If that Anne Hathaway incident a few days ago wasn't an accident, then she deserves her award for her beautiful performance in "Rachel Getting Married". But I have chosen to take that as an html Freudian slip, the HFPA wants to award Hathaway but they owe it to Kate and guess what, unlike those overdue people she is breathtaking in "Revolutionary Road".
Even if it seems she's done the same role a million times before, her performance feels everything but old.
Best Motion Picture- Comedy or Musical
Will win: "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Should win: "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
The Globes have a ball in this category because they never ever choose the one everyone expects (just look at last year for example). This year they might reward "Mamma Mia" because it was huge at the international box office, but the movie itself was mediocre at best. "Happy-Go-Lucky" which is a masterpiece might have a shot at it, but the award for its actress will be seen as an award for both categories. That leaves us with Woody Allen's luscious love letter to Barcelona, which beautifully combined sex, angst, heartbreak, food poisoning and murderous ex-wives and still made us crave to be a part of it.
Best Actor - Musical or Comedy
Will win: Dustin Hoffman "Last Chance Harvey"
Should win: Colin Farrell "In Bruges"
Farrell had a wonderful year with this and "Cassandra's Dream" where he proved that beyond the attitude, sex tapes and smoking we first got to know him as an actor.
I'm guessing he splits votes with his co-star Brendan Gleeson and we'll end with a sweet victory for the legendary Hoffman.
Best Actress - Musical or Comedy
Will win: Sally Hawkins "Happy-Go-Lucky"
Should win: Sally Hawkins "Happy-Go-Lucky", Rebecca Hall "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Poor Rebecca Hall had to go and give her brilliant performance the year Hawkins delivered one of the greatest performances of the decade in Mike Leigh's transcendental, beautiful ode to hope.
Watch out for Meryl Streep who danced and sang beautifully in "Mamma Mia", but the movie sucked and maybe the reward was proving once again she's G-d in actress form.
Best Supporting Actor:
Will win: Heath Ledger "The Dark Knight"
Should win: Heath Ledger "The Dark Knight"
I've made my peace with the fanboys and now I don't desire they get their asses kicked for their arrogance, so I agree with Ledger getting his posthumous reward.
Although I have to confess I did love Ralph Fiennes in "The Duchess" and thought Robert Downey Jr. was splendid in "Tropic Thunder".
Oh and Tom Cruise. Seriously?
Best Supporting Actress:
Will win: Penélope Cruz "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Should win: Penélope Cruz "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Not only is she a definition of what makes the HFPA, she also gave a ferocious, beautiful performance in Woody Allen's gorgeous film that nobody saw coming.
Best Director- Motion Picture
Will win: Danny Boyle "Slumdog Millionaire"
Should win: Sam Mendes "Revolutionary Road"
This one's pretty much a lock and the HFPA does love spreading the wealth.
Best Screenplay - Motion Picture
Will win: Simon Beaufoy "Slumdog Millionaire"
Should win: Simon Beaufoy "Slumdog Millionaire"
I'm abstaining from passing judgement towards "The Reader" and "Doubt" because I haven't been lucky enough to watch them, so who knows if they might be good adaptations.
But with what I've got, Beaufoy's gimmicky narrative makes a much better story than whatever Eric Roth was thinking by grabbing Fitzgerald's moving and funny "Benjamin Button" and turning it into a cornier version of "Forrest Gump".
And as much as I love what Peter Morgan does to legendary leaders' biopics, "Frost/Nixon" annoyed me more than anything.
Best Foreign Language Film
Will win: "Gomorrah"
Should win: "Gomorrah"
Everyone stopped talking about "I've Loved You So Long" ages ago even if it's such a good film and "Waltz With Bashir" will feel like it's cheating in this category, so expect the Globes to go for Matteo Garrone's epic, brilliant mafia saga.
Best Animated Film
Will win: "WALL-E"
Should win: "WALL-E"
There's just no other way this can go.
Will win: Alexander Desplat "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Should win: Desplar or A.H Rahman "Slumdog Millionaire"
Am I the only one tired that one of our greatest living composers is snubbed time after time after time? (He's only been nominated for an Oscar once!) His beautiful score for "Button" should do it, unless the voters are feeling more Bollywood.
Will win: "The Wrestler" by Bruce Springsteen from "The Wrestler"
Should win: "Down to Earth" by Peter Gabriel from "WALL-E"
If Bruce Springsteen or Peter Gabriel get it I'll be a happy camper, just keep this away from Miley Cyrus' "song" from "Bolt".
On the TV side expect "30 Rock" to sweep and Anna Paquin to join the ranks of Jennifer Garner and Keri Russell (babes who get the Globe during their freshman season) for her work in "True Blood".
And may we all get as drunk as the stars tonight. Happy Globes!